Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Lee Child Responds

After sending me an email to share why he signed the Authors United petition, and spending some time engaging with people in the comments, Lee Child has continued to generously share his thoughts and has responded to some of the questions I had.

I'll run it in its entirety, then provide my answers.

Lee: Joe, here’s my response to the points you made that interest me.

I think the first part of your reply (about relative success) can be summed up by quoting your words “That’s luck … the legacy industry never handed me the keys to the kingdom like they did with you.”

That’s a little self-pitying, don’t you think?  Poor Joe!  And it doesn’t hold up under analysis.  We both started from the same place, albeit a few years apart, but as it happens those particular years saw no change in the model. We both had the same small print run in debut hardcover.  We both had the same extremely limited distribution.  We both had the same non-existent marketing support.  We were first-year clones of each other.  We were typical throw-it-at-the-wall-and-see-if-it-sticks gambits.

The same was pretty much true of our second and third years, too. Meanwhile, of course, we both went to work, trying to get ahead, by writing the best books we could, and promoting them as effectively as possible.

Now, I’m the first to acknowledge the existential luck I had in life.  I was born white, male, middle class, tall, healthy, not visibly deformed, in a stable postwar Western democracy at peace, with a welfare state and free education. I think my own little demographic was literally the luckiest ever in all of human history.

But you certainly shared that luck.  Not quite as tall, maybe, but certainly better looking … not as extensive a welfare state, but certainly a far more prosperous society.  And so on.  We started equal, and we made choices. Yours were poor.  You threw immense energy into misguided – and actually damaging – stratagems.  You didn’t understand the game.  Which is not just hindsight.  I remember trying to dissuade you, as a friend, in a conference hotel somewhere long ago.  You ignored me, and were eventually dropped, while I stayed in the game.

No one “handed” me a key, and no one withheld one from you.  Instead, a bean counter sat down and figured he could make more money out of me than you.  It was that simple.

And in fact you were then very lucky – a new platform was invented that suited your skill set perfectly.  I’m a close observer of the whole self-publishing scene (and I have read more than 600 self-published books) and I think your weaknesses under the old model have been matched by exceptional strengths perfectly attuned to the new model.

I think you should celebrate that, and I think you should stop letting traditional publishing live rent-free in your head.  I think all self-publishers should.  Because all these endless screechy blogs make you look whiny, not us.  “I coulda been a contender!”  Get over it already.  Move on.  Don’t perpetuate the “bitter reject” meme.

Later you said, “I believe you overestimate the value of Hachette’s catalog to Amazon.”  No, I don’t.  I said I think Amazon overestimates the value of Hachette’s catalog to Amazon.  My point was quite clear – Amazon won’t dump Hachette because Amazon’s own internal credo is built on being the everything store.  Which dilutes its negotiating power.  All negotiations are built on a willingness to walk away.  Amazon isn’t willing.

Later you mention print disappearing – which it might, and which I would regret, because I think it would happen without a positive desire on the part of customers.  People like print.  If it goes, it will have gone because of retail economics, not lack of appeal.  Which sounds confused, but that’s an accurate analysis.  Mass market is dying not because there’s diminished demand, but because there isn’t enough margin in it.  “I can make more out of broccoli than books,” one retailer said.  Will all readers switch to e-readers?  Not all, I think.  Sadly reading’s appeal is fragile now, and many folks will quit and find alternatives.  Or not – I’ll be particularly sad about poor people.  Any e-reading ecosystem is entirely inaccessible unless you have a working credit card or a viable bank account for PayPal – which poor people don’t.  They love used paperbacks – all worn and furry, found, traded, borrowed, bought for fifty cents.  But hey.  This is the modern world.

As for the rest … I guess I have one question.  One thing few people know about me is I love ironing.  I just moved, which was a great excuse for a new ironing board.  I checked Amazon, naturally, who had boards ranging from $18 all the way to $220.  Has Amazon approached the expensive manufacturer and said, “C’mon, pal, America needs cheaper ironing boards!  Think of the children!”  No, it said, “Sure, throw it up on the site and we’ll see if anyone’s interested.  We trust our customers to decide for themselves.”

Another interest is audio.  Amazon has low-powered two-channel audio amplifiers listed from $24 to $24,000.  Did it approach the expensive manufacturer and say, “C’mon, pal, America needs cheaper amplifiers!  Think of the puppies!”  No, it said, “Sure, throw it up on the site and we’ll see if anyone’s interested.  We trust our customers to decide for themselves.”

Can you explain in detail why the e-book market shouldn’t operate the same way as the ironing board market or the amplifier market?  Why do e-book buyers – uniquely – need Nanny Amazon to save them from deciding for themselves?  Are books special?  Are they different?  Or are there others factors in play?

Joe: Thanks again for stopping by, Lee. Your thoughts are smart and refreshing. I'll respond point by point.

Lee: I think the first part of your reply (about relative success) can be summed up by quoting your words “That’s luck … the legacy industry never handed me the keys to the kingdom like they did with you.”

That’s a little self-pitying, don’t you think?  Poor Joe!  

Joe: I find it empowering. My daddy didn't buy me a car. I went out and earned my own.

Ribbing aside, you had advantages that I didn't, but that's life. I'm pleased with what I've been able to accomplish, and don't lament what I never had.  

Lee: And it doesn’t hold up under analysis.  We both started from the same place, albeit a few years apart, but as it happens those particular years saw no change in the model.  We both had the same small print run in debut hardcover.  We both had the same extremely limited distribution.  We both had the same non-existent marketing support.  We were first-year clones of each other.  We were typical throw-it-at-the-wall-and-see-if-it-sticks gambits.

Joe: I'm pretty sure your advance and print run were higher than mine. Didn't Stephen King review your first book in Entertainment Weekly? Didn't you also debut in the UK? You already had several advantages out of the gate.

Lee: The same was pretty much true of our second and third years, too.  Meanwhile, of course, we both went to work, trying to get ahead, by writing the best books we could, and promoting them as effectively as possible.

Joe: Right after my third book came out, my publisher dropped their entire mystery line. Not only my series, but others as well. This was after I signed a deal for three more books.

My first three novels never got coop, never got discounting, never got worldwide distribution. I went on book tours for #2 and #3, which I'll get to in a moment. But we were very far from starting at the same place.

Lee: Now, I’m the first to acknowledge the existential luck I had in life.  I was born white, male, middle class, tall, healthy, not visibly deformed, in a stable postwar Western democracy at peace, with a welfare state and free education.  I think my own little demographic was literally the luckiest ever in all of human history.

But you certainly shared that luck.  Not quite as tall, maybe, but certainly better looking … not as extensive a welfare state, but certainly a far more prosperous society.  And so on.  

Joe: Agreed, except on the better looking part. You've got a suave British Secret Agent look about you, I get mistaken for an elderly Jack Black.

I grew up in America a privileged white male in an affluent family. But as I neared adulthood, our family lost everything. While in college, and for years later, I was poor. I wrote my first novel in 1992, in a basement apartment in the Chicago suburbs, and often had to choose between eating and turning on the heat. (On a particularly cold winter night went to the bathroom and couldn't shower because my shampoo bottle had frozen).

It was during a pretty serious rescission, and writing was something I squeezed in between any job I could get, some white collar, some blue.

This taught me a lot. First, to not be afraid of hard work. Second, to not give up.

I was lucky, but at lot of the time it didn't feel like it. I was, literally at times, a starving artist.

Lee: We started equal, and we made choices. Yours were poor. You threw immense energy into misguided – and actually damaging – stratagems. You didn’t understand the game. Which is not just hindsight. I remember trying to dissuade you, as a friend, in a conference hotel somewhere long ago. You ignored me, and were eventually dropped, while I stayed in the game.

Joe: My stratagems--learning how to self-promote and signing in as many bookstores as possible--were the reason my books went into multiple printings and earned out their modest advances ($110,000 for the first three novels, $125,000 for the next three novels). Here's a guide a wrote in 2006 t about all the work you didn't have to do.

Your publishing experience was a lot different than mine.

My efforts, the ones you call damaging, kept food on my table and allowed me to stay a fulltime writer, rather than a writer with a day job. This is what 99% of legacy authors must do; hustle, or work part time (or full time) at something else.

Lee: No one “handed” me a key, and no one withheld one from you.  Instead, a bean counter sat down and figured he could make more money out of me than you.  It was that simple.

Joe: That's called luck, Lee. Your bean counter gave you a break. Mine axed the mystery line, even as my sales were growing.

It wasn't a quality issue. It wasn't because your books were better.

Before I self-pubbed, I had less than 500 reviews on Amazon, all of my titles combined. I wasn't being read, because I wasn't easy to find.

Now I have 13,000 reviews, averaging four stars. Not many authors, no matter how they publish, have over 1000 reviews on a single title. You do. So do other monster bestsellers. So do I.

In the comments you mentioned:

I remember meeting Dick Francis early on and learning a lot from him. In some ways he was the pioneer of the regular-as-clockwork, book-a-year paradigm. How much sense would it have made for me to say, "Oh, you just got lucky, so I'm going to ignore you"?

Joe: Dick Francis is the perfect counterexample to my experience. His publisher carried him for over ten years (was it twenty?) before he had a breakout hit. Your publisher also carried you (and I bet you were getting coop and discounting early on in both the US and UK, along with reviews and ads and a slew of others things I didn't get.)

For my first book, I got some minor support from my publisher. They took me to BEA, introduced me to many mystery bookstore buyers. They printed up 10,000 Whiskey Sour coasters with my book cover on them. But they refused to let me do book signings, because that cost coop money and they didn't feel giving a bookstore $25 would result in enough debut hardcover sales to cover that meager cost.

Since I wasn't allowed to tour, I popped into bookstores and signed stock, then handsold that stock until it was gone. When the store restocked, in larger numbers, I did it again.

To counter that I spent 8 hours in a Waldenbooks and handsold 100 hardcovers at $23.95 a pop. During the holiday season, I did this every day, at every bookstore within driving distance. From Thanksgiving to Xmas, for several years.

And as a result, I sold more books than anyone expected.

For Book #2, sensing they could enhance my efforts, my publisher arranged for a West Coast tour, comprising of 7 events over ten days. Besides the official signings, I also signed stock at 100 more stores. I also mailed out 6500 letters to libraries, each with a signed coaster, telling them about my books.

Since I wasn't getting big distribution or discounting or coop space, I enlisted booksellers to help me, which meant meeting as many as I could, signing stock, and explaining who I was and what my books were about.

This also circumvented the dreaded return system. Booksellers were less likely to return signed books, increasing my shelf life. Booksellers I met were more likely to order more books and handsell them. And bookstore algorithms (I believe B&N called it "modeling") would automatically order new copies of books that sold well.

For book #3, I signed at over 500 stores during a single summer.

Then my publisher's mystery line vanished.

For book #4, my publisher gave me ZERO support, even though my sales had been rising. No touring, no marketing. They screwed up the drop date of my launch, and didn't care. And my hardcover still went into a second printing.

Books #5 and #6, also effectively orphaned, weren't even submitted to the usual reviewers. For my last book, Borders couldn't even order it because of some colossal distributor screw-up, and they were my biggest supporter (I got to speak at a Borders regional sales meeting--something I set up, not something my daddy set up for me).

The result of my efforts; I earned out $235,000 in royalties, and all of my books had multiple printings.

But no one wanted to pick up a series in situ. So I wound up selling a horror novel, AFRAID, under the pen name Jack Kilborn, for a $20k advance. 

It's nice that you get to write about the same character in the same genre. Some of us had to diversify in order to survive.

I visited 200 bookstores to support the release, and did one of the first author blog tours. I earned out that advance in a month. But then Hachette refused to publish my follow-up novel because the editor didn't like it (it was a two book deal). I wrote a third book for them, and they wanted major changes.

I told them to piss off. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

Lee: And in fact you were then very lucky – a new platform was invented that suited your skill set perfectly.  I’m a close observer of the whole self-publishing scene (and I have read more than 600 self-published books) and I think your weaknesses under the old model have been matched by exceptional strengths perfectly attuned to the new model.

Joe: What weaknesses? You mentioned them, but didn't point them out. I feel I was lucky to land two deals, and unlucky with how they turned out. 

I also did wind up becoming my own worst enemy, because when Kindle was invented I had IPs earning steady money for my publishers, and they didn't want to give me those rights back. I had to fight hard for them. 

Those books Hachette didn't want have earned me hundreds of thousands of dollars.

That series Hyperion didn't want to continue has earned me a million.

And you still want to insist my publisher gave me the same shot that yours gave you? If that's the case, you need to quit your publisher right now, because your sales will go up 1000% like mine did. :D

Lee: I think you should celebrate that, and I think you should stop letting traditional publishing live rent-free in your head.  I think all self-publishers should.  Because all these endless screechy blogs make you look whiny, not us.  “I coulda been a contender!”  Get over it already.  Move on.  Don’t perpetuate the “bitter reject” meme.

Joe:  Even if I had been given the same treatment you had, and experienced great success, I'm still pretty sure I wouldn't be siding with Authors United.

I believe all newbie writers should read this blog post, to see both sides. Your experience is unique, mine is common. The majority of legacy writers get excoriated by the legacy system.

I was, however, very lucky that Amazon invented the Kindle, and that I had a backlist of rejected titles that put me in a perfect position to take advantage of it.

That's how well your system works. I bought my house and two cars for cash, with books that the Big 6 were convinced wouldn't sell. I'm talking about my rejected novels, not the ones that were legacy pubbed.

The only time I mention "I coulda been a contender" is when someone says they earned their success through hard work and talent.

C'mon, Lee. You know luck plays a huge part. You got a lot luckier than I ever did, so why not acknowledge that? You've even mentioned luck before:

"To get as successful as I have gotten as a writer, it's like winning the lottery the same day that you get hit by lightning twice. It's staggeringly unlikely. So I'm unbelievably fortunate." - Lee Child

I can understand the "hit by lightning" part. Circumstances beyond my control ruined two of my publishing deals. In my case, the luck I had was bad.

But my luck was still greater than thousands of other legacy authors, who sold 1/10 of what I did when I was with Hyperion and Hachette. And I never thought I was better, or more deserving, than any of them.

Lee: Later you said, “I believe you overestimate the value of Hachette’s catalog to Amazon.”  No, I don’t.  I said I think Amazon overestimates the value of Hachette’s catalog to Amazon.  My point was quite clear – Amazon won’t dump Hachette because Amazon’s own internal credo is built on being the everything store.  Which dilutes its negotiating power.  All negotiations are built on a willingness to walk away.  Amazon isn’t willing.

Joe: And yet Amazon has zero problem removing pre-order buttons and discounts. This runs counter to your statement. 

Amazon can still be the everything store without giving into Hachette's demands. It's doing that very thing right now. And Amazon readers don't care. Since this dispute began, Amazon's reputation has gotten even better. Its approval rating has gone up, and it has claimed the number 1 spot in customer reputation. 

Amazon doesn't need to walk away. They still sell Hachette's books, and other Big 5 publisher titles, while also selling 500,000 exclusive titles.

Hachette's sales have gone down. I doubt Amazon even noticed a blip. They may be selling fewer Hachette titles, but they're making more per title because they aren't discounting, as well as selling titles in lieu of Hachette titles. This Hachette book takes 3 weeks to ship? I'll just buy a different book that ships overnight. 

And think of all the warehouse space they're saving. :)

Lee: Later you mention print disappearing – which it might, and which I would regret, because I think it would happen without a positive desire on the part of customers.  People like print.  If it goes, it will have gone because of retail economics, not lack of appeal.  Which sounds confused, but that’s an accurate analysis.  Mass market is dying not because there’s diminished demand, but because there isn’t enough margin in it.  “I can make more out of broccoli than books,” one retailer said.  Will all readers switch to e-readers?  Not all, I think.  Sadly reading’s appeal is fragile now, and many folks will quit and find alternatives.  Or not – I’ll be particularly sad about poor people.  Any e-reading ecosystem is entirely inaccessible unless you have a working credit card or a viable bank account for PayPal – which poor people don’t.  They love used paperbacks – all worn and furry, found, traded, borrowed, bought for fifty cents.  But hey.  This is the modern world.

Joe: Print won't disappear. It will become a subsidiary right, which I blogged about four and a half years ago.

It's nice that you feel bad for the poor. Thankfully, even the poor have access to computers and smart phones, and many ebooks are a lot cheaper than used paperbacks. You may have heard that there are also millions of free ebooks. 

As for people liking print, this is a tired old meme that I debunked years ago. 

Lee: As for the rest … I guess I have one question.  One thing few people know about me is I love ironing.  I just moved, which was a great excuse for a new ironing board.  I checked Amazon, naturally, who had boards ranging from $18 all the way to $220.  Has Amazon approached the expensive manufacturer and said, “C’mon, pal, America needs cheaper ironing boards!  Think of the children!”  No, it said, “Sure, throw it up on the site and we’ll see if anyone’s interested.  We trust our customers to decide for themselves.”

Another interest is audio.  Amazon has low-powered two-channel audio amplifiers listed from $24 to $24,000.  Did it approach the expensive manufacturer and say, “C’mon, pal, America needs cheaper amplifiers!  Think of the puppies!”  No, it said, “Sure, throw it up on the site and we’ll see if anyone’s interested.  We trust our customers to decide for themselves.”

Can you explain in detail why the e-book market shouldn’t operate the same way as the ironing board market or the amplifier market?  Why do e-book buyers – uniquely – need Nanny Amazon to save them from deciding for themselves?  Are books special?  Are they different?  Or are there others factors in play?

Joe: Lee, this is a great comparison. You did a bit of chest thumping in both of these posts, and I went on the defensive. I'm happy you did that, because it shakes things up a bit and makes for an interesting read.

But the end of your previous post, where you spoke about your concern that Amazon becomes the only publisher left, is a valid point and could have been brought to the forefront.

You make another valid point here. Are books different from other markets where prices diverge?

I'll opine that books don't have as wide a range of prices, like an amplifier or an ironing board, because their components all cost about the same. You don't expect a Bentley to cost the same as a Hyundai. The Rolls is a better car, made of better materials.

A Lee Child hardcover costs about as much to print as a JA Konrath hardcover (actually, mine was more expensive because you had much larger print runs).

You were paid more, and the publisher certainly wants to recoup as much of that as possible. Since your brand is strong, you're able to move a lot of ebooks at $12.99.

I'm fine with that, and good for you. It does go against your earlier point about feeling bad for the poor people who can't buy expensive books, but I do believe there is a market for $12.99 ebooks, or even $29.99 ebooks.

That's not the problem I have. 

The problem I have is authors like you, right now, and groups like the Authors Guild and Authors United, are fueling the belief that Lee Child sells well at $12.99, therefor Joe Blow can sell well at $12.99 if he signs with the Big 5, too.

That is far from the truth. 

Yes, high ebook prices work for a few handfuls of bestsellers. But they kill the careers of midlisters stuck in shitty legacy contracts.

My sales went up 1000% once I got my rights back from my publishers. How many midlist authors are being held hostage in a similar way, just so publishers can maintain control of the paper oligopoly that makes them and a handful of authors like you amazingly rich?

You're thriving, but thousands of others are withering.

Even without Amazon discounts, Doug Preston's latest Kindle thriller is ranked at #861 and priced at $12.99. He's probably not recouping his huge advance, but he's doing okay. If all he had were those sales, he could make a living.

In contrast, The Three by Sarah Lotz, a new Hachette release, is also $12.99 and ranked #119,551. Her hardcover is in the 200,000s. How is she going to earn her advance out? Make a living? Put food on the table? Hachette loves the book enough to promote it on its website as a lead title. But is it getting her book into Target department stores? I looked, didn't see it. I did see yours and Doug's books, though.

I don't mean to pick on Sarah, or put her on the spot. I don't know her, she was just the first debut Hachette author I found when I went looking. I did notice she didn't sign your little Authors United petition (I say "little" when comparing it to the petition Hugh and I did with 8x as many signatures).

Amazon offered, three separate times, to compensate authors who were being harmed by this negotiation. I bet Sarah would benefit from that compensation. So would hundreds of other authors. Where was AU? Hint: they were immediately rejecting the proposals, as was Hachette.

These are the folks you've chosen to side with.

Authors signing with big publishers not only have to contend with those publishers pricing their ebooks as luxury items, failing to get them into bookstores and other paper outlets (especially with coop), they also can wind up as collateral damage because their publisher refuses to negotiate with the biggest bookseller on the planet.

I know you said that writers should make hay when the sun is shining, and self-publish. Good, smart advice. But that is counter to you supporting Hachette in this dispute.

You're sending out the message that Amazon--the only competition that the Big 5 ever had and the company that has allowed more authors to make money than any other time in history--is the bad guy and is going to hurt authors. You're also sending out the message that high ebook prices are okay, when they're only okay for a small minority of major bestsellers. 

Right now, the authors being hurt are those stuck in the middle of this negotiation--and Amazon has tried to take those authors out of the line of fire three times. Hachette has not.

Authors United, in their ridiculous and oft-repeated assertion that they aren't taking sides, is making those Hachette authors suffer even more. They should be pressuring their own publisher to negotiate (because, you know, that's who they have contracts with, not Amazon). But AFAIK they haven't even contacted Hachette.

All the biased media coverage is perpetuating a bunch of lies and nonsense. And that's harmful.

To your credit, you haven't perpetuated any nonsense here. You came in guns blazing, and I like that. We disagree on the luck factor, and that's fine. And you made two very good points in these posts.

Why the hell isn't AU making those points?

If you spoke for AU, and used the comparisons and rhetoric you used on my blog, I wouldn't have much to disagree with. I don't want Amazon to rule the world. I believe ebook pricing is elastic and everyone's sweet spot (where unit sales and profits peak) is different. We're not far apart on those issues.

But while this system has worked extraordinarily well for you, it screwed me. And it has screwed thousands of others.

That's why I continue to write this blog. So authors don't have to go through what I went through.

That isn't whining, Lee. That's activism. And I need to point these things out, repeatedly, for new authors who are learning about these topics for the very first time. This is A Newbie's Guide to Publishing, not an Insider's Guide for Pros.

It's unlikely that anyone reading this will ever attain the level of success you've had. Encouraging writers to follow your path is like encouraging toddlers to climb Mount Everest. 

In contrast, thousands of writers have followed my path. Some have succeeded well beyond me. Others are making money for the very first time.

As doctors know, "First do no harm."

All of the one-sided media coverage is harmful. 

Large publishers are harmful.

Being ill-informed is harmful.

Authors United is harmful.

Amazon may be harmful sometime in the future, but right now it is doing good by the vast majority of authors who self-publish. I just got a nice bottle of scotch and a shadowbox in the mail today from Amazon, because my Jack Daniels novel, Stirred, has sold 100,000 copies.

That's 100,000 copies without appearing in brick and mortar bookstores, because they boycott Amazon books.

That's 100,000 copies that could have been through Hyperion, but they missed the boat.

100,000 copies is nothing to you. But to a guy who knows how hard it is to handsell 100 hardcovers, one at a time, over an eight hour period in a mall bookstore, that number amazes me.

All authors work hard. Many authors are damn talented. 

Very few will get the breaks you got. And very few will get the breaks I got.

But my dream is more attainable for the masses than yours is. And positioning yourself against a company, Amazon, that makes those dreams possible, while endorsing publishers that exploit and harm the careers and pocketbooks of the majority of authors they work with, saddens me. Especially since anyone looking at the situation can easily see that Authors United is very much out to protect the rich and privileged at the expense of the poor and unlucky.

Thanks again for your thoughts on this. You're always welcome here, and it's a pleasure to have someone with a much different perspective than mine voice their opinion.

I also asked Barry Eisler to chime in (even though he and I vehemently disagree about airline seats) and he emailed me:

Barry: Hi Lee, you mentioned ironing boards and amplifiers as products that Amazon allows suppliers to price as they like, knowing some people will prefer the high-end items and others the low-end. In this system, no one is being denied access to ironing boards etc because low-priced alternatives are plentiful. And you asked, Why not just do the same for books? I think this is a great question and a great way to frame the issue — by far the best presentation I’ve seen on the topic yet from anyone affiliated with Authors United. So thank you for that.

For the most part, I agree. We already live in a world where there are more low-priced and probably even free books (not to mention library access) than any one person could read in a lifetime. So if some readers can’t afford, or don’t want to spend the money on, what we might think of as the luxury end of the book market, it’s not exactly a national tragedy.

I wouldn't want to go too far with this argument; I think reading is an important public good and in general I’m in favor of lower prices, more choice, and easier access for everyone, and therefore I tend to favor the business model that’s built to accomplish those aims rather than the one that’s built to impede them. But I’m also in favor of people having the freedom to price their goods as they like. There’s a balance in there somewhere, and maybe we fall to slightly different sides of it, or we have somewhat different views of the best way those possibly competing interests can be reconciled. Thinking about your points, I had the sense that our views might not be so different.

But this is what gets me. Why is this the first time anyone affiliated with Authors United has made an argument in such a cogent, no-bullshit, non-propagandistic way?

Just today, the New York Times ran another puff piece quoting new Authors United member Ursula K. Leguin saying, "We’re talking about censorship: deliberately making a book hard or impossible to get, ‘disappearing’ an author… Governments use censorship for moral and political ends, justifiable or not. Amazon is using censorship to gain total market control so they can dictate to publishers what they can publish, to authors what they can write, to readers what they can buy.”

And Andrew Wylie, who’s pitching all his clients to join Authors United, is quoted as saying, “If Amazon is not stopped, we are facing the end of literary culture in America.”

Not to mention all the existing rhetoric from your cohorts about books being “sanctioned,” and “boycotted,” about “We’re not taking sides,” etc.

Lee… do you really believe any of that craziness? If not, why are you lending your name to it?

If Authors United were as thoughtful and honest as you were in the thoughts I’m addressing here, l’d probably have written a blog post or two analyzing our different visions of the best system for serving readers and authors and that would have been the end of it. But instead what they peddle is overheated rhetoric, distortions, and propaganda. All of which we might loosely classify as “bullshit,” and all of which is what concerns me so much about the effect the organization is likely to have.

Because as I’ve said many times: I don’t care what choices authors make for themselves; I care that they can make those choices based on accurate information. I think it’s great that for the first time there are competing systems within publishing. What’s disturbing is when one of those systems peddles disinformation as a way of attracting new entrants — and this is the essence of what Authors United is part of. For lots more on this, here’s a post Joe and I did earlier this year called Publishing is Lottery/Publishing is a Carny Game.

http://jakonrath.blogspot.com/2014/02/eisler-publishing-is-lottery-konrath.html

If Authors United is on the level, why can’t they take a straight-up position, as you have? Why all the distortions and bullshit?

I don’t know. Maybe it’s a rhetorical question. But as long as the organization continues to present itself as propagandistically as it does, I hope people will keep calling it out. I wish you would, too.

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Mir Writes said...

I just did it with a Google search for "Lee Child Reacher Paperback" and clicked on a link to a mass market pb on Amazon. A JOVE, reprint editions. (Not Hachette) Guess what? THE BANNER IS RIGHT ON TOP! Again, 3 books recommended as "customers who viewed also viewed."

I think we solved the mystery of the banner, maybe...

Alan Spade said...

I think that Paul Draker's figures of the Big Five market share accounting for 60-65% of book sales should be the one taken into account.

Why? Because even with Broken Yogi's graph (http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2014-03-07-50percent2020.png ), we are talking about the market share controlled by the traditional publishers, not the Big 5. So, it is 90% for traditional publishing and 60-65% for the Big Five, with 20-25% for small and medium traditional publishers.

Beware of not confusing Big 5 with all traditional publishing.

We have also to remember that it's easier for the Big 5 to have their books in big chains like Barnes&Noble and Walmart, and that since 2009, the Big 5 have lost Borders and B&N has fewer bookstores than by the past, and fewer space for books in the remaining bookstores.

Independant bookstores, who are more likely to order small and medium publishing books, do exist in increasing number since the last years. It makes sense, because the Border's bankrupcy and the diminishing of B&N bookstores have left a void.

It remains to be seen if those independant bookstores are really relying exclusivly in books, and if not, what is the share of books in their overall sales.

But it's easy to predict that the Big 5 will no more exist as they are today in a few years (by 2020, I think), and that paper will survive, with medium and small publishers benefiting from the Big 5 demise, and with ebooks becoming dominant.

Amazon knows that. The Big five rely on their past prevalence, but the current books sales work in Amazon's favor. Time is on the Amazon's side.

Unknown said...

After reading all of this, it seems the joke is on Joe.

He paid money for Exorcist: The Beginning and Dominion: Prequel to the Exorcist.

David Gaughran said...

FWIW I have seen the strip of other books being advertised on some Hachette book pages (but not for a couple of months).

I should note that this is something that Amazon has been doing on self-published book pages for at least three years.

I see it as Amazon peeling back some of the extra perks a big supplier like Hachette gets because they currently have no contract (and Hachette appear to be dragging its feet on same).

P.S. Great discussion between Lee and Joe. More of the same, please.

Tracy Sharp - Author of the Leah Ryan Series said...

Where can I get some of those magic marshmallows? ;D

Anonymous said...

I have enjoyed this debate and while I still agree with just about everything you've said, I have to agree that Lee makes some fairly valid points in a way that I haven't seen others on his side make as eloquently.

I do have to say one thing, at risk of angering the crowd. At one point, you make this statement: "It's unlikely that anyone reading this will ever attain the level of success you've had. Encouraging writers to follow your path is like encouraging toddlers to climb Mount Everest."

While I absolutely understand the sentiment, I also think it's a depressing and misguided thing to say. "Look, kid...you're never going to sell like Lee Child, so don';t even waste your time with it. Do this other thing instead and save the heartache."

Twelve years ago when I started writing short stories, I dreamed to follow the paths of King and Barker before me...and while I am NOWHERE near there, I don't think I'd have the drive without that goal to aspire to.

I think telling aspiring writers that they'll never be as big as Lee Child (or King or whoever) is one of the most damaging things you, as a successful writer, can do...regardless of which side of the publishing fence you fall on. Is it true? With 95% certainty...but still...it seems very defeatist.

T. M. Bilderback said...

Where can I get some of those magic marshmallows? ;D

"Awlways after me Lucky Charms!"

Tracy Sharp - Author of the Leah Ryan Series said...

Haha! T.M!

JA Konrath said...

He paid money for Exorcist: The Beginning and Dominion: Prequel to the Exorcist.

Both were better than Exorcist II: The Heretic.

I actually didn't mind the Renny Harlin prequel. Preferred it to the Schrader version.

JA Konrath said...

Viva freedom of speech.

Since when are bloggers required to allow any anonymous pinhead to spout nonsense?

That said, I didn't censor anything. Your comment is probably in Blogger's spam folder.

I'll stop what I'm doing and go look. Not.

Barry Eisler said...

Lee said:

"Barry, re your recent answers: I love your description of ADS upstream, and have no doubt a neutral bystander would agree 100%. But I think the same neutral bystander would gently point out there's a mirror-image: Defensiveness Syndrome, in which no weakness of KDP must ever be admitted ... in which 'I haven't really noticed' is an answer.”

Hi Lee, a request for more information (and thank you Paolo and others for providing it) is perhaps not the best example of a mindset in which "no weakness of KDP must ever be admitted,” but that’s not what interested me most about your comment.

And if you can cite “mirror-image” rhetoric even remotely as crazy as the Ursula K. Leguin and Andrew Wylie quotes in my comments above ("disappearing" authors? "the end of literary culture in America”?), or Preston’s references to “blood money” and “boycotts” and the like,” or Patterson’s description of Amazon as a “national tragedy [that] has to be changed, by law if necessary, immediately, if not sooner," or any calls at all that the government intervene to break up the “Big Five” cartel, I’d be grateful if you would share them.

But that aspect of the equivalence you’re trying to claim isn’t what interested me most about your comment, either.

What interested me most is that even if it were true that what you call Defensiveness Syndrome were as widespread and virulent among the pro-Amazon set as it is among the anti-, why would you equate whatever relatively powerless deranged voices you might find among pro-Amazon writers with the media-amplified deranged voices of James Patterson, Doug Preston, Roxana Robinson, Scott Turow, and so many other superstars? How many full-page ads have pro-Amazon taken out in the New York Times? How many times have they met with lawyers at the Justice Department? How many deranged quotes from pro-Amazon authors do you see in the pages of the biggest establishment media outlets? How many pro-Amazon authors can claim to have the New York Times’ David Streitfeld as their own personal stenographer?

This might be the place where you say something like, “Well, yes, Barry, easy access to mass media is one of the benefits of being traditionally published, unusually talented, exceptionally rich, and of having worked hard to become a household name…,” or something like that. But none of that is the point. The point is, your argument is like that of someone who responds to the president’s or Pentagon's deranged statement in favor of yet more war by saying, “Oh come on, there was a guy in my high school whose arguments for total pacifism were equally crazy.”

So even if it were true that pro-Amazon authors were characterized by as much bullshit as we see being produced by the legacy system, the danger I’m worried about isn’t the bullshit itself — it’s the possibility that will people will listen to, act on, and be harmed by/cause harm based on that bullshit.

In other words, I have a feeling that when James Patterson says crazy shit — amplified by the New York Times and CNN — a lot more people are likely to act in reliance on it than if a pro-Amazon author few people have even heard of were to say some mirror-image crazy thing.

Barry Eisler said...

To Lee (continued):

More broadly: in any system, equating the voices of the relatively disenfranchised with those of the relatively powerful and influential just because "Hey, both sides have their crazy voices," is missing the question of *likelihood of damage* — a point so obvious I’m tempted to say there might be a species of Defensiveness Syndrome behind the myopia.

So yes, you can probably find a few deranged voices among pro-Amazon authors, just as Goldman Sachs managed to point to a few crazies in Occupy Wall Street. Crazy pro-Amazon statements aren’t as easy to locate because they tend not to pop up in full-page New York Times ads and in massive media coverage, but sure, they’re out there. The people making them just don’t have access to the same destructive tools you and your colleagues are playing with.

And that’s another critical difference, isn’t it? Even if you could point to pro-Amazon voices remotely as deranged as Patterson, Preston, et al, I’d shrug and point out that I don’t agree with, coordinate with, or join with people whose modus operandi is propaganda and bullshit. You can’t make that claim. Because you’re part of Authors United.

"We could spend weeks arguing point-by-point (and I think the download fee is truly, truly cheesy) but I doubt I'd get anywhere, because of the faith-based doctrinal requirements.”

Agreed, and this is precisely why I haven’t addressed your argument that expensive books are good for poor people. I just can’t seem to summon the necessary faith to believe in a doctrine like that.

Anonymous said...

Sure it is. You know you deleted it.

JA Konrath said...

You know you deleted it.

I admit it. I deleted that, but didn't delete the post where you claimed I deleted that, because I'm a half-assed censor.

I also deleted a post where I called you a pinhead. Which was wrong of me to do, because now you'll never know that I think you're a pinhead.

Edward M. Grant said...

That may well be. But then it only raises the question of what is Amazon's actual cost for 3G downloads.

Amazon don't know. I could buy a book and only download it once by wi-fi, at almost zero cost to them. Or I could download it a thousand times over 3G, at significant cost to them. Or Bezos could wake up tomorrow and decide to shut down 3G support. All they can do is estimate the average lifetime download cost for a single book.

Why should authors/publishers pay the brunt of those costs, when they don't pay for Amazon's free shipping of their books or other items on Prime (which the customer also pays extra for up front)?

How many companies selling books and other items through Amazon make a 70% margin on the sale price?

Amazon give you a choice: take 70% of the proceeds, but pay the delivery cost, or take 35%, which is a much more normal business margin, and they'll swallow the delivery cost. Take your pick.

I've no idea how the cost compares to their real cost, but, from past experience, Amazon are unlikely to impose such a cost if it makes no sense. It actively harms their customers, because they get ebooks with lower resolution images, and that's something Amazon rarely do.

But those who say 'OMG! I could download 1MB from my ISP for $0.000000000001! Amazon SUCK!' just demonstrate they don't understand the business. There's a real cost to book downloads, and it's a continuing cost that Amazon have to pay for the foreseeable future.

T. M. Bilderback said...

Barry, I don't have ADS, either upstream or downstream.

I have CRS.

Can't Remember Sh*t.

Michael

Broken Yogi said...

Edward,

I could buy a book and only download it once by wi-fi, at almost zero cost to them. Or I could download it a thousand times over 3G, at significant cost to them.

I'm going to assume that Amazon keeps track of total downloads and their cost. It can't be guesswork. Individual behavior averages out in the aggregate. They are writing checks to broadband suppliers, and they must know how big those checks are.

Amazon give you a choice: take 70% of the proceeds, but pay the delivery cost, or take 35%, which is a much more normal business margin, and they'll swallow the delivery cost. Take your pick.

That's not the issue. The justification and wisdom of these delivery charges is the issue. You're not addressing that by saying “take it or leave it.” You're just hiding from it.

I've no idea how the cost compares to their real cost, but, from past experience, Amazon are unlikely to impose such a cost if it makes no sense.

I see, so you don't know what you're talking about, but just trust good ole Amazon to have an honest rationale. Why is this not convincing?

But those who say 'OMG! I could download 1MB from my ISP for $0.000000000001! Amazon SUCK!' just demonstrate they don't understand the business.

Since I'm not one of those people, I don't see the relevance of this remark. There must be a real cost to 3G, and Amazon must know what that cost is, and I'm willing to bet that it's much lower than what they are charging. You still haven't explained why they charge at all, when they've already charged extra when anyone buys a 3G Kindle in the first place. And the charges don't apply only to 3G downloads, but to all downloads, including ones that go straight over the internet, which are of course dirt cheap.

There's a real cost to book downloads, and it's a continuing cost that Amazon have to pay for the foreseeable future.

Yes, and you don't know what that cost is, but are just reflexively defending Amazon with no data to support it. And you somehow even defend them charging these high delivery rates for large image files and books with lots of pictures, even though that clearly does a lot of damage to authors, because what? Amazon Infatuation Syndrome?

I would be willing to bet that the download cost is tiny, and could be easily absorbed by Amazon in their 30% gross cut. Or, as I say, made into a single fixed charge that compensates them for the cost of overall downloads, and thus doesn't punish large files. Lots of options here that don't involve Amazon losing money over it.

E.B. Black said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

My husband and I are poor. Not as much as we used to be a couple of years ago when we didn't have the money for hot water and we ate only ramen noodles and toast (bread is cheap!), but we're still below the poverty level and living in an apartment in a very dangerous city in California. I can't afford a car or cable (it was either cable or internet and I chose internet) and we're going to have nothing for Christmas because we're barely going to make it by that month. (I'm just hoping that we don't get evicted because they cut my husband's hours towards the end of the year and I don't know how we'll make rent yet.) I'm not sad and not asking you to pity me, I am just saying that your comments show how out of touch you are with "poor people."

I am an author and a reader. A poor one who sells hardly any books.

I prefer to read e-books or go to the library. Unlike what you said, poor people LOVE e-books, especially since a lot of them are free. All of us have something-a phone, a computer, or a tablet. Even if we only have one of those, it's enough to read e-books on. Until self-publishing caught on, I gave up reading for YEARS except through libraries because I couldn't afford books at all.

And I don't know what you are talking about. Unless people are only being paid through cash, they have a bank account. I am a poor person WITH a bank account AND a paypal account. Having a paypal account doesn't cost any money and neither does a bank account as long as you use a credit union (which my husband and I use.) So it's very, very easy for us to buy books on Amazon. In fact, a little too easy for comfort sometimes.

I just feel like you have to get it out of your head that you are here to help the poor authors and the poor readers. You aren't or the things you say would make more sense to me. You're out to support the rich and the rich authors. That's fine to defend your own interests. Of course you do, everyone does if they want to survive.

But you're not defending the poor or the authors who aren't mega successes like you. J.A. Konrath is. If he wasn't, then why does everything he says make so much sense to me? Why does everything he says always seem to apply to me? He gives such good advice and has helped me sell more books that I probably could have on my own.

Mir Writes said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Alyx said...

Lee, thanks for your concern for the poor! The library not only lends print books for free, but also downloadable e and audiobooks.

Used bookstores are a thing of the past, I fear. Used to be a dozen here in my city. Now, there are almost none. It's not ebooks that are doing that, but just economics. So "we" can't do anything about that.

Fortunately, we have public libraries, which have been with us for centuries, and I hope will be there forever.

But don't blame "us" or ebooks. Used books are less available in bricks-and-mortar stores, just like, well, new books. You can of course still get them on eBay and Amazon.

And frankly, ebooks are quite accessible and cheap. Many low-income people have smartphones, after all, and they can read ebooks on that. I have an anthology of 5 full-length novels for sale for .99 this year. (It's a loss leader to draw attention to my other books... that's the sort of price strategy that is now available to us.) I looked on my sub-genre's bestseller page, and there were 5 other anthologies like that for .99. That's cheaper than used books would be.

I know the big publishers aren't doing that, and too bad for them. But poor people can better afford 5 of my books for 99 cents to read on their cell phone than a single Hachette hardback or trade p'back. We're doing our little best, buddy, thanks for the concern!

Alyx said...

oKAY, guesses on who "Anon"is who is so sure he got "censored". I'm voting for Steve Z. :)

Anonymous said...

Joe forgot one thing. When it comes to genre fiction, Lee Child is a Rolls Royce. Maybe others are the Hyundai that Joe mentioned. Hence some authors can sell at premium prices and others will find themselves easier to sell at lower prices. They'll get reviews on Amazon. But not fare so well with mainstream critics. But that's for the authors and the market to decide.

Matt said...

Alyx at 10:25 PM said "The library not only lends print books for free, but also downloadable e and audiobooks."

OMG does anyone else know about this?! Libraries are destroying literary culture by offering free books! They are devaluing valuable books far more so than self published authors and KDP. Someone start a petition against libraries.

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